Test 11 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

What would happen if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times?

Mova's choice: option 3 · The right answer: option 2 · wrong ✗ · Who acts: you · What happens: happen, flip · To what, where: fair coin

This is test 11 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: the test at school.

The question

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	What	what	PRON	PronType=Int	3 happen	nsubj
2	would	would	AUX	VerbForm=Fin	3 happen	aux
3	happen	happen	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
4	if	if	SCONJ	_	6 flipped	mark
5	you	you	PRON	Case=Nom Person=2 PronType=Prs	6 flipped	nsubj
6	flipped	flip	VERB	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=2 Tense=Past VerbForm=Fin	3 happen	advcl
7	a	a	DET	Definite=Ind PronType=Art	9 coin	det
8	fair	fair	ADJ	Degree=Pos	9 coin	amod
9	coin	coin	NOUN	Number=Sing	6 flipped	obj
10	10,000	10000	NUM	NumForm=Digit NumType=Card	11 times	nummod
11	times	time	NOUN	Number=Plur	6 flipped	obl:unmarked
12	?	?	PUNCT	_	3 happen	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	happen	would							vn occur-48.3-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme
2	flip a condition, not said to happen	past	you	a fair coin			time		vn throw-17.1-1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent coin=Theme

One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

The options

Option 1

The coin would wear out and land heads

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	The	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	2 coin	det
2	coin	coin	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 wear	nsubj
3	would	would	AUX	VerbForm=Fin	4 wear	aux
4	wear	wear	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
5	out	out	ADP	_	4 wear	compound:prt
6	and	and	CCONJ	_	8 heads	cc
7	land	land	NOUN	Number=Sing	8 heads	compound
8	heads	head	NOUN	Number=Plur	4 wear	conj

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	wear out	would	the coin						vn wipe_manner-10.4.1-1 «NP V PP-Conative»: agent=Agent

Option 2 · ✓ the right answer

Heads and tails would come out roughly even, without any "catching up"

The tree, 12 words

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Heads	head	NOUN	Number=Plur	5 come	nsubj
2	and	and	CCONJ	_	3 tails	cc
3	tails	tail	NOUN	Number=Plur	1 Heads	conj
4	would	would	AUX	VerbForm=Fin	5 come	aux
5	come	come	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
6	out	out	ADV	_	5 come	advmod
7	roughly	roughly	ADV	_	8 even	advmod
8	even	even	ADV	_	5 come	advmod
9	,	,	PUNCT	_	13 catching	punct
10	without	without	SCONJ	_	13 catching	mark
11	any	any	DET	PronType=Ind	13 catching	nsubj
12	"	"	PUNCT	_	13 catching	punct
13	catching	catch	VERB	Tense=Pres VerbForm=Part	5 come	advcl
14	up	up	ADP	_	13 catching	compound:prt
15	"	"	PUNCT	_	13 catching	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	come out	would	Heads and tails					out property	vn become-109.1 «NP V ADJ»: agent=Patient
2	catch up in a quote	gerund	any						vn get-13.5.1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent

Option 3 · ← Mova's choice

Tails would always follow a run of heads

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Tails	tail	NOUN	Number=Plur	4 follow	nsubj
2	would	would	AUX	VerbForm=Fin	4 follow	aux
3	always	always	ADV	PronType=Tot	4 follow	advmod
4	follow	follow	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
5	a	a	DET	Definite=Ind PronType=Art	6 run	det
6	run	run	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 follow	obj
7	of	of	ADP	_	8 heads	case
8	heads	head	NOUN	Number=Plur	6 run	nmod

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	follow	would	Tails	a run of heads				always property	vn chase-51.6 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent run=Theme
2	run			heads					nom run «act transitive»: of=patient

Option 4

Heads and tails would come out exactly 5,000 each

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Heads	head	NOUN	Number=Plur	5 come	nsubj
2	and	and	CCONJ	_	3 tails	cc
3	tails	tail	NOUN	Number=Plur	1 Heads	conj
4	would	would	AUX	VerbForm=Fin	5 come	aux
5	come	come	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
6	out	out	ADV	_	5 come	advmod
7	exactly	exactly	ADV	_	8 5,000	advmod
8	5,000	5000	NUM	NumForm=Digit NumType=Card	5 come	obl
9	each	each	DET	PronType=Tot	8 5,000	advmod

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	come out	would	Heads and tails	5,000				out property	vn become-109.1 «NP V ADJ»: agent=Patient

Text: the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (world/data/school/), as the course runner gave them to the student. Trees: Mova's own parse — the en model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. Frames: Mova's frames reader (prag), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

This page in Markdown → https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t11/