Exam question 2 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

Ascertain the probability of obtaining a six upon a single roll of a fair die, irrespective of prior rolls.

Mova's choice: option 1 · The right answer: option 4 · wrong ✗ · Who acts: you, probability · What happens: ascertain, obtain, roll · To what, where: probability, six, fair die

This is exam question 2 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, asked in stiff, formal language. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: the test at school.

The question

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Ascertain	ascertain	VERB	Mood=Imp VerbForm=Fin	root	root
2	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	3 probability	det
3	probability	probability	NOUN	Number=Sing	1 Ascertain	obj
4	of	of	SCONJ	_	5 obtaining	mark
5	obtaining	obtain	VERB	VerbForm=Ger	3 probability	acl
6	a	a	DET	Definite=Ind PronType=Art	7 six	det
7	six	six	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	5 obtaining	obj
8	upon	upon	ADP	_	11 roll	case
9	a	a	DET	Definite=Ind PronType=Art	11 roll	det
10	single	single	ADJ	Degree=Pos	11 roll	amod
11	roll	roll	NOUN	Number=Sing	5 obtaining	obl
12	of	of	ADP	_	15 die	case
13	a	a	DET	Definite=Ind PronType=Art	15 die	det
14	fair	fair	ADJ	Degree=Pos	15 die	amod
15	die	die	NOUN	Number=Sing	11 roll	nmod
16	,	,	PUNCT	_	20 rolls	punct
17	irrespective	irrespective	ADV	_	20 rolls	advmod
18	of	of	ADP	_	20 rolls	case
19	prior	prior	ADJ	Degree=Pos	20 rolls	amod
20	rolls	roll	NOUN	Number=Plur	5 obtaining	obl
21	.	.	PUNCT	_	1 Ascertain	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	other	roles by
1	ascertain	imperative	you not said here	the probability		vn discover-84 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent probability=Topic
2	obtain	gerund	the probability not said here	a six	upon a single roll of a fair die; of prior rolls	vn obtain-13.5.2-1 «NP.asset V NP»: agent=Asset six=Theme
3	roll			a fair die		nom roll «event transitive»: of=patient

One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

The options

Option 1 · ← Mova's choice

One in two

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	One	one	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	root	root
2	in	in	ADP	_	3 two	case
3	two	two	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	1 One	nmod

The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

Option 2

Six in six

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Six	six	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	root	root
2	in	in	ADP	_	3 six	case
3	six	six	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	1 Six	nmod

The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

Option 3

One in thirty-six

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	One	one	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	root	root
2	in	in	ADP	_	3 thirty	case
3	thirty	thirty	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	1 One	nmod
4	-	-	PUNCT	_	5 six	punct
5	six	six	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	3 thirty	conj

The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

Option 4 · ✓ the right answer

One in six

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	One	one	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	root	root
2	in	in	ADP	_	3 six	case
3	six	six	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	1 One	nmod

The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

Text: the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (world/data/school/), as the course runner gave them to the student. Trees: Mova's own parse — the en model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. Frames: Mova's frames reader (prag), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

This page in Markdown → https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e2/