Exam question 3 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

Select the response consistent with the established facts concerning the selection 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in a lottery draw.

Mova's choice: option 1 · The right answer: option 2 · wrong ✗ · Who acts: you, established facts · What happens: select, establish, concern · To what, where: response, selection

This is exam question 3 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, asked in stiff, formal language. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: the test at school.

The question

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Select	select	VERB	Mood=Imp VerbForm=Fin	root	root
2	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	3 response	det
3	response	response	NOUN	Number=Sing	1 Select	obj
4	consistent	consistent	ADJ	Degree=Pos	1 Select	xcomp
5	with	with	ADP	_	8 facts	case
6	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	8 facts	det
7	established	establish	VERB	Tense=Past VerbForm=Part Voice=Pass	8 facts	amod
8	facts	fact	NOUN	Number=Plur	4 consistent	obl
9	concerning	concern	VERB	VerbForm=Ger	8 facts	acl
10	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	11 selection	det
11	selection	selection	NOUN	Number=Sing	9 concerning	obj
12	1	1	NUM	NumForm=Digit NumType=Card	11 selection	flat
13	,	,	PUNCT	_	14 2	punct
14	2	2	NUM	NumForm=Digit NumType=Card	12 1	conj
15	,	,	PUNCT	_	16 3	punct
16	3	3	NUM	NumForm=Digit NumType=Card	12 1	conj
17	,	,	PUNCT	_	18 4	punct
18	4	4	NUM	NumForm=Digit NumType=Card	12 1	conj
19	,	,	PUNCT	_	20 5	punct
20	5	5	NUM	NumForm=Digit NumType=Card	12 1	conj
21	,	,	PUNCT	_	22 6	punct
22	6	6	NUM	NumForm=Digit NumType=Card	12 1	conj
23	in	in	ADP	_	26 draw	case
24	a	a	DET	Definite=Ind PronType=Art	26 draw	det
25	lottery	lottery	NOUN	Number=Sing	26 draw	compound
26	draw	draw	NOUN	Number=Sing	22 6	nmod
27	.	.	PUNCT	_	1 Select	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	other	roles by
1	select	imperative	you not said here	the response	consistent property	vn obtain-13.5.2 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent response=Theme
2	establish	participle				vn indicate-78-1-1 «NP V NP to be NP»: agent=Pivot
3	concern	gerund	the established facts not said here	the selection		vn amuse-31.1 «NP V NP»: agent=Stimulus selection=Experiencer

One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

The options

Option 1 · ← Mova's choice

It is more probable than any other selection

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	It	it	PRON	Case=Nom Gender=Neut Number=Sing Person=3 PronType=Prs	4 probable	nsubj
2	is	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	4 probable	cop
3	more	more	ADV	Degree=Cmp	4 probable	advmod
4	probable	probable	ADJ	Degree=Pos	root	root
5	than	than	ADP	_	8 selection	case
6	any	any	DET	PronType=Ind	8 selection	det
7	other	other	ADJ	Degree=Pos	8 selection	amod
8	selection	selection	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 probable	obl

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	is	present	It					than any other selection; probable property	tree rules

Option 2 · ✓ the right answer

It is exactly as probable as any other selection of six numbers

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	It	it	PRON	Case=Nom Gender=Neut Number=Sing Person=3 PronType=Prs	5 probable	nsubj
2	is	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	5 probable	cop
3	exactly	exactly	ADV	_	5 probable	advmod
4	as	as	ADV	_	5 probable	advmod
5	probable	probable	ADJ	Degree=Pos	root	root
6	as	as	ADP	_	9 selection	case
7	any	any	DET	PronType=Ind	9 selection	det
8	other	other	ADJ	Degree=Pos	9 selection	amod
9	selection	selection	NOUN	Number=Sing	5 probable	obl
10	of	of	ADP	_	12 numbers	case
11	six	six	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	12 numbers	nummod
12	numbers	number	NOUN	Number=Plur	9 selection	nmod

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	is	present	It					as any other selection of six numbers; exactly, probable property	tree rules
2	select			six numbers					nom selection «act transitive»: of=patient

Option 3

It is impossible in any properly conducted draw

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	It	it	PRON	Case=Nom Gender=Neut Number=Sing Person=3 PronType=Prs	3 impossible	expl
2	is	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	3 impossible	cop
3	impossible	impossible	ADJ	Degree=Pos	root	root
4	in	in	ADP	_	8 draw	case
5	any	any	DET	PronType=Ind	8 draw	det
6	properly	properly	ADV	_	7 conducted	advmod
7	conducted	conduct	VERB	Tense=Past VerbForm=Part Voice=Pass	8 draw	amod
8	draw	draw	NOUN	Number=Sing	3 impossible	obl

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	is	present				any conducted draw		impossible property	tree rules
2	conduct	participle						properly property	vn accompany-51.7 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent

Option 4

It is less probable than a random-appearing selection

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	It	it	PRON	Case=Nom Gender=Neut Number=Sing Person=3 PronType=Prs	4 probable	nsubj
2	is	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	4 probable	cop
3	less	less	ADV	Degree=Cmp	4 probable	advmod
4	probable	probable	ADJ	Degree=Pos	root	root
5	than	than	ADP	_	10 selection	case
6	a	a	DET	Definite=Ind PronType=Art	10 selection	det
7	random	random	ADJ	Degree=Pos	9 appearing	amod
8	-	-	PUNCT	_	7 random	punct
9	appearing	appear	VERB	VerbForm=Ger	10 selection	amod
10	selection	selection	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 probable	obl

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	is	present	It					than a appearing selection; less, probable property	tree rules
2	appear	gerund							vn appear-48.1.1 «NP V»: agent=Theme

Text: the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (world/data/school/), as the course runner gave them to the student. Trees: Mova's own parse — the en model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. Frames: Mova's frames reader (prag), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

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