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Test 4 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

Grandpa: "The dice has been saving up sixes for you, has it? Like pocket money?" What is the truth he is pointing at?

Mova's choice: option 3 · The right answer: option 2 · wrong ✗ · Who acts: dice, Grandpa, truth · What happens: save up, have, be, point · To what, where: sixes, dice, truth

This is test 4 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: the test at school.

The question

Sentence 1: Grandpa: "The dice has been saving up sixes for you, has it?

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Grandpa	grandpa	NOUN	Number=Sing	14 has	nsubj
2	:	:	PUNCT	_	8 saving	punct
3	"	"	PUNCT	_	8 saving	punct
4	The	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	5 dice	det
5	dice	dice	NOUN	Number=Sing	8 saving	nsubj
6	has	have	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	8 saving	aux
7	been	be	AUX	Tense=Past VerbForm=Part	8 saving	aux
8	saving	save	VERB	Tense=Pres VerbForm=Part	1 Grandpa	conj
9	up	up	ADP	_	8 saving	compound:prt
10	sixes	six	NOUN	Number=Plur	8 saving	obj
11	for	for	ADP	_	12 you	case
12	you	you	PRON	Case=Acc Person=2 PronType=Prs	10 sixes	nmod
13	,	,	PUNCT	_	1 Grandpa	punct
14	has	have	VERB	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	root	root
15	it	it	PRON	Case=Acc Gender=Neut Number=Sing Person=3 PronType=Prs	14 has	obj
16	?	?	PUNCT	_	14 has	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	save up in a quote	present · perfect · progressive	the dice	sixes				for you	vn get-13.5.1-1 «NP V NP PP.beneficiary»: agent=Agent six=Theme for you=Beneficiary
2	have in a quote	present	Grandpa	dice					vn birth-28.2-1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent it=Patient

One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

Sentence 2: Like pocket money?"

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Like	like	ADP	_	3 money	case
2	pocket	pocket	NOUN	Number=Sing	3 money	compound
3	money	money	NOUN	Number=Sing	root	root
4	?	?	PUNCT	_	3 money	punct
5	"	"	PUNCT	_	3 money	punct

The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

Sentence 3: What is the truth he is pointing at?

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	What	what	PRON	PronType=Int	root	root
2	is	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	1 What	cop
3	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	4 truth	det
4	truth	truth	NOUN	Number=Sing	1 What	nsubj
5	he	he	PRON	Case=Nom Gender=Masc Number=Sing Person=3 PronType=Prs	7 pointing	nsubj
6	is	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	7 pointing	aux
7	pointing	point	VERB	Tense=Pres VerbForm=Part	4 truth	acl:relcl
8	at	at	ADP	_	7 pointing	obl
9	?	?	PUNCT	_	1 What	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	is a	present	the truth						tree rules
2	point	present · progressive	Grandpa	the truth not said here					vn wink-40.3.1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent truth=Patient

The options

Option 1

Sixes always come after lots of low numbers

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Sixes	six	NOUN	Number=Plur	3 come	nsubj
2	always	always	ADV	PronType=Tot	3 come	advmod
3	come	come	VERB	Mood=Ind Number=Plur Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	root	root
4	after	after	ADP	_	5 lots	case
5	lots	lot	NOUN	Number=Plur	3 come	obl
6	of	of	ADP	_	8 numbers	case
7	low	low	ADJ	Degree=Pos	8 numbers	amod
8	numbers	number	NOUN	Number=Plur	5 lots	nmod

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	come	present	Sixes				after lots of low numbers	always property	vn escape-51.1-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme

Option 2 · ✓ the right answer

A fair dice has the same chance every roll

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	A	a	DET	Definite=Ind PronType=Art	3 dice	det
2	fair	fair	ADJ	Degree=Pos	3 dice	amod
3	dice	dice	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 has	nsubj
4	has	have	VERB	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	root	root
5	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	7 chance	det
6	same	same	ADJ	Degree=Pos	7 chance	amod
7	chance	chance	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 has	obj
8	every	every	DET	PronType=Tot	9 roll	det
9	roll	roll	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 has	obj

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	have	present	a fair dice	the same chance					tree rules

Option 3 · ← Mova's choice

Dice really do save up their sixes for later

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Dice	die	NOUN	Number=Plur	4 save	nsubj
2	really	really	ADV	_	4 save	advmod
3	do	do	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Plur Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	4 save	aux
4	save	save	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
5	up	up	ADP	_	4 save	compound:prt
6	their	their	PRON	Case=Gen Number=Plur Person=3 Poss=Yes PronType=Prs	7 sixes	nmod:poss
7	sixes	six	NOUN	Number=Plur	4 save	obj
8	for	for	ADP	_	9 later	case
9	later	late	ADV	Degree=Cmp	4 save	obl

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	save up	present · do-support	Dice	Dice's sixes					vn get-13.5.1-1 «NP V NP PP.source»: agent=Agent six=Theme for late=Source

Option 4

His dice must be loaded so it never rolls sixes

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	His	his	PRON	Case=Gen Gender=Masc Number=Sing Person=3 Poss=Yes PronType=Prs	2 dice	nmod:poss
2	dice	dice	NOUN	Number=Sing	5 loaded	nsubj:pass
3	must	must	AUX	VerbForm=Fin	5 loaded	aux
4	be	be	AUX	VerbForm=Inf	5 loaded	aux:pass
5	loaded	load	VERB	Tense=Past VerbForm=Part Voice=Pass	root	root
6	so	so	ADV	_	9 rolls	advmod
7	it	it	PRON	Case=Nom Gender=Neut Number=Sing Person=3 PronType=Prs	9 rolls	nsubj
8	never	never	ADV	PronType=Neg	9 rolls	advmod
9	rolls	roll	VERB	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	5 loaded	advcl
10	sixes	six	NOUN	Number=Plur	9 rolls	obj

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	load	must · passive		His dice					vn spray-9.7-2 «NP V NP.theme»: subject=Theme
2	not roll	present	dice	sixes					vn run-51.3.2-2 «PP.location V NP»: agent=Initial_Location six=Theme

Text: the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (world/data/school/), as the course runner gave them to the student. Trees: Mova's own parse — the en model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. Frames: Mova's frames reader (prag), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

This page in Markdown → https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t4/