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Test 5 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

Kai's aunt: "Bound to come up? The odds are millions to one, Dave. The only thing bound to come up is the bill." What does she mean?

Mova's choice: option 1 · The right answer: option 4 · wrong ✗ · Who acts: odds, only thing, Dave · What happens: bind, come up, be, mean · To what, where: aunt, millions, one, only thing, bill

This is test 5 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: the test at school.

The question

Sentence 1: Kai's aunt: "Bound to come up?

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Kai	Kai	PROPN	Number=Sing	3 aunt	nmod:poss
2	's	's	PART	_	1 Kai	case
3	aunt	aunt	NOUN	Number=Sing	root	root
4	:	:	PUNCT	_	6 Bound	punct
5	"	"	PUNCT	_	6 Bound	punct
6	Bound	bind	VERB	Tense=Past VerbForm=Part Voice=Pass	3 aunt	acl:relcl
7	to	to	PART	_	8 come	mark
8	come	come	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	6 Bound	xcomp
9	up	up	ADP	_	8 come	compound:prt
10	?	?	PUNCT	_	3 aunt	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	bind in a quote	participle		Kai's aunt not said here					tree rules
2	come up in a quote	to-infinitive							vn escape-51.1-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme

One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

Sentence 2: The odds are millions to one, Dave.

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	The	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	2 odds	det
2	odds	odd	NOUN	Number=Plur	4 millions	nsubj
3	are	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Plur Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	4 millions	cop
4	millions	million	NOUN	Number=Plur	root	root
5	to	to	ADP	_	6 one	case
6	one	one	NUM	NumForm=Word NumType=Card	4 millions	nmod
7	,	,	PUNCT	_	8 Dave	punct
8	Dave	Dave	PROPN	Number=Sing	4 millions	nmod
9	.	.	PUNCT	_	4 millions	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	is a	present	the odds	millions	one			Dave nmod	tree rules

Sentence 3: The only thing bound to come up is the bill."

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	The	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	3 thing	det
2	only	only	ADJ	Degree=Pos	3 thing	amod
3	thing	thing	NOUN	Number=Sing	10 bill	nsubj
4	bound	bind	VERB	Tense=Past VerbForm=Part Voice=Pass	3 thing	acl
5	to	to	PART	_	6 come	mark
6	come	come	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	4 bound	xcomp
7	up	up	ADV	_	6 come	advmod
8	is	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	10 bill	cop
9	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	10 bill	det
10	bill	bill	NOUN	Number=Sing	root	root
11	.	.	PUNCT	_	10 bill	punct
12	"	"	PUNCT	_	10 bill	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	bind	participle		the only thing not said here					tree rules
2	come up	to-infinitive							vn escape-51.1-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme
3	is a	present	the only thing	the bill					tree rules

Sentence 4: What does she mean?

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	What	what	PRON	PronType=Int	4 mean	obj
2	does	do	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	4 mean	aux
3	she	she	PRON	Case=Nom Gender=Fem Number=Sing Person=3 PronType=Prs	4 mean	nsubj
4	mean	mean	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
5	?	?	PUNCT	_	4 mean	punct

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	mean	present · do-support	Dave						vn intend-61.2-1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent what=Topic

The options

Option 1 · ← Mova's choice

Dave should buy lots more tickets, so the numbers come up sooner

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Dave	Dave	PROPN	Number=Sing	3 buy	nsubj
2	should	should	AUX	VerbForm=Fin	3 buy	aux
3	buy	buy	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
4	lots	lot	NOUN	Number=Plur	3 buy	obj
5	more	more	ADJ	Degree=Cmp	6 tickets	amod
6	tickets	ticket	NOUN	Number=Plur	4 lots	obj
7	,	,	PUNCT	_	11 come	punct
8	so	so	ADV	_	11 come	advmod
9	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	10 numbers	det
10	numbers	number	NOUN	Number=Plur	11 come	nsubj
11	come	come	VERB	Mood=Ind Number=Plur Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	3 buy	conj
12	up	up	ADV	_	11 come	advmod
13	sooner	soon	ADV	Degree=Cmp	11 come	advmod

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	buy	should	Dave	lots					vn accept-77.1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent lot=Theme
2	come up	present	the numbers					soon property	vn escape-51.1-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme

Option 2

Bills are drawn like lottery balls

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	Bills	bill	NOUN	Number=Plur	3 drawn	nsubj:pass
2	are	be	AUX	Mood=Ind Number=Plur Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	3 drawn	aux:pass
3	drawn	draw	VERB	Tense=Past VerbForm=Part Voice=Pass	root	root
4	like	like	ADP	_	6 balls	case
5	lottery	lottery	NOUN	Number=Sing	6 balls	compound
6	balls	ball	NOUN	Number=Plur	3 drawn	obl

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	draw	present · passive		Bills				like lottery balls	vn scribble-25.2-1 «NP V NP»: subject=Theme

Option 3

The numbers will win next week

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	The	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	2 numbers	det
2	numbers	number	NOUN	Number=Plur	4 win	nsubj
3	will	will	AUX	VerbForm=Fin	4 win	aux
4	win	win	VERB	VerbForm=Inf	root	root
5	next	next	ADJ	Degree=Pos	6 week	amod
6	week	week	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 win	obl:unmarked

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	win	future	the numbers				week		vn succeed-74-2 «NP V»: agent=Agent

Option 4 · ✓ the right answer

The chance never improves, but the cost keeps adding up

The words, one row each (CoNLL-U)

#	word	lemma	UPOS	features	head	relation
1	The	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	2 chance	det
2	chance	chance	NOUN	Number=Sing	4 improves	nsubj
3	never	never	ADV	PronType=Neg	4 improves	advmod
4	improves	improve	VERB	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	root	root
5	,	,	PUNCT	_	9 keeps	punct
6	but	but	CCONJ	_	9 keeps	cc
7	the	the	DET	Definite=Def PronType=Art	8 cost	det
8	cost	cost	NOUN	Number=Sing	9 keeps	nsubj
9	keeps	keep	VERB	Mood=Ind Number=Sing Person=3 Tense=Pres VerbForm=Fin	4 improves	conj
10	adding	add	VERB	VerbForm=Ger	9 keeps	xcomp
11	up	up	ADP	_	10 adding	compound:prt

#	verb	tense, mood	who	what, whom	to whom	where	when	other	roles by
1	not improve	present	the chance						vn other_cos-45.4 «NP.patient V»: agent=Patient
2	keep	present	the cost						tree rules
3	add up speech: assert	gerund	the cost not said here						vn mix-22.1-2 «NP V ADVP-Middle»: agent=Patient

Text: the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (world/data/school/), as the course runner gave them to the student. Trees: Mova's own parse — the en model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. Frames: Mova's frames reader (prag), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

This page in Markdown → https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t5/