Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost

Tests: 5 of 11 right · Exam: 2 of 4 right · Kind: ★ · Understood: 11 of 15 · Run: 2026-10-18, commit f3c23ea72

Lesson 172 of the world course of Mova's primary school, as Mova's small model took its tests: it had read this lesson and the ones before it and learned from their exercises. Each test shows the options in the order the student saw them, its choice, the right answer, the score of every option and why it chose. The lesson itself, sentence by sentence with trees and pragmatics: the lesson in the corpora.

Every question of this lesson and each of its options parsed by Mova, with trees and pragmatics: the lesson's questions in the corpora.

Test 1 · ★ · right ✓

His sister: "It's a 1 percent chance, not a 1 percent promise. Bro bought 100 tickets to disappointment." Who is she teasing?

1. Ollie's belief that chance is a promise, not Ollie himself — ← Mova's choice · ✓ the right answer · score 5
2. Her own luck with boxes — no support
3. Ollie for liking skins — score 5
4. The game company for being honest — no support

Why: It took the question to ask who or what does it. It chose option 1 with score 5, tied with another option at 5 (the first shown, or the one claiming less beyond what it knows, wins). Its support: lesson 172, line 1: «In his game, Ollie opens loot boxes (paid surprise boxes with a random prize) for a legendary skin. The chance is 1 in 100 per box. He opens 100 boxes and gets…», reached through the same lesson line as the sentence the question matched. What matched: it fills the role the question asks for (+3); the same doer «ollie» (+2). · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 2 · ★ · right ✓

Her brother: "So I should just buy the third pack first? Galaxy brain." Why is that funny?

1. Third packs are really cheaper — no support
2. The "third" pack is just whichever pack you open third — ← Mova's choice · ✓ the right answer · score 5
3. Galaxy packs are rarer — no support
4. He really thinks it would work — no support

Why: It took the question to ask why something happens (its cause). It chose option 2 with score 5, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 172, line 10: «Each pack or box has the same chance; there is no "lucky third pack".», reached through the option's own match among the sentences about the question's things. What matched: the same property (+3); the same doer «lucky third pack» (+2). · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 3 · ★ · wrong ✗

Noah's mate: "The guy opened 1000 packs and posted the best 50. You saw the highlights, not the whole film." What trap is this?

1. Spending more because you spent — no support
2. Only seeing the winners — ✓ the right answer · score 4
3. A trick question — ← Mova's choice · score 7
4. Moving the goalposts — no support

Why: It took the question to ask what it is done to. It chose option 3 with score 7, against 4 for the next best. Its support: lesson 170, line 9: «Saying something louder does not make it truer; if nobody saw clearly, agree a fair way to settle it, like a replay or a coin toss.», reached through the same lesson line as the sentence the question matched. What matched: it fills the role the question asks for (+4); the same thing acted on «fair way» (+3). The right option, 2, scored 4. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 4 · ★ · wrong ✗

His older sister: "Mate, that's how you lose £40 instead of £20." What would happen if Sam stopped now?

1. He would lose no more than the £20 already gone — ✓ the right answer · no support
2. He would lose the £20 he already spent all over again — ← Mova's choice · score 5
3. He would get a free legendary skin for being loyal — no support
4. The game would notice and refund all of his money — no support

Why: It took the question to ask what something is like. It chose option 2 with score 5, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 172, line 3: «Sam has spent twenty pounds of birthday money and got nothing good. "I can't stop now, I've already spent twenty quid." That is the sunk cost trap: the money i…», reached through the option's own match among the sentences about the question's things. What matched: the same action «spend» (+3); the same doer «sam» (+2). The right option, 1, found no support in what it remembers. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 5 · ★ · wrong ✗

Ellie's brother: "You tried it twice. That's not science, that's a vibe." What would a real test need?

1. Asking friends what they think — ← Mova's choice · no support
2. Two more tries at midnight — no support
3. Hundreds of openings at different times, counted — ✓ the right answer · no support
4. One try at midnight, then one try at noon, and compare the two — no support

Why: No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 6 · ★ · right ✓

His cousin: "Hot streak? You've been cold for 40 boxes, bro. Freezer streak." What is true?

1. The game turned off his luck — no support
2. Hot streaks always last ten boxes — no support
3. Cold streaks mean a win is due very soon, so he should keep going — no support
4. Two lucky boxes didn't change the next box's chance — ← Mova's choice · ✓ the right answer · score 5

Why: It took the question to ask which statement is true. It chose option 4 with score 5, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 172, line 9: «Random draws often come in clumps by chance; two lucky boxes in a row don't change the next box's chance, and thinking they do is the hot-hand fallacy.», reached through the option's own match among the sentences about the question's things. What matched: the same action «change» (+4); the same doer «two lucky boxes» (+1). · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 7 · ★ · right ✓

Mum: "Paying money and hoping for a prize? Call it a surprise all you like, it's still a gamble, sweetheart." What is she saying?

1. Changing the name doesn't change what it is — ← Mova's choice · ✓ the right answer · no support
2. Loot boxes are free — no support
3. Surprises are always bad — no support
4. Gambling is only for adults with bank cards, so this can't be gambling — no support

Why: No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 8 · ★ · wrong ✗

Friend: "The game hates you? It gave you a golden dragon on Tuesday, you ungrateful goblin." Is "goblin" a real insult here?

1. No, it's friendly teasing about forgetting the good drops — ✓ the right answer · no support
2. Yes, it's meant to really hurt — ← Mova's choice · score 7
3. No, because Leo really is a goblin character in the game he plays — no support
4. Yes, goblins are bad players — no support

Why: It took the question to ask which statement is true. It chose option 2 with score 7, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 169, line 18: «Words people use: "nah, I'm good" means no thanks, "bro" and "mate" mean friend, "mid" means not very good (young slang), "a fiver" is a five-pound note, "gala…», reached through the same lesson line as the sentence the question matched. What matched: the same action «mean» (+4); the same thing acted on «friend» (+3). The right option, 1, found no support in what it remembers. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 9 · ★ · wrong ✗

His dad: "So you bought a really rare thing you can't sell. Congratulations on your very expensive picture." What should Arjun have done first?

1. Bought even more boxes to get a better one — ← Mova's choice · score 4
2. Sold it to a friend for cash straight away — score 3
3. Asked a famous streamer to buy it from him — score 3
4. Checked the game's rules before spending — ✓ the right answer · no support

Why: It took the question to ask what is done. It chose option 1 with score 4, against 3 for the next best. Its support: lesson 95, line 6: «Goods are things you can buy and hold; services are work that someone does for you.», reached through the remembered sentence the question matched. What matched: it fills the role the question asks for (+4); the same action «buy» (+2). Against it: a different doer (counts against) (-2). The right option, 4, found no support in what it remembers. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 10 · ★ · wrong ✗

Priya: "You can feel it? Bestie, that's not data, that's a mood." What does "bestie" mean?

1. A boss in the game — no support
2. The best drop — ← Mova's choice · score 5
3. Best player — no support
4. Best friend — ✓ the right answer · no support

Why: It took the question to ask who or what does it. It chose option 2 with score 5, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 172, line 17: «Words people use: "drops" are the items a game gives you, "a skin" is a new look for a character, "quid" means pounds (UK money), "galaxy brain" is sarcastic f…», reached through the same lesson line as the sentence the question matched. What matched: it fills the role the question asks for (+3); the same doer «drops» (+2). The right option, 4, found no support in what it remembers. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Test 11 · ★ · right ✓

In a cartoon a robot says, "After 99 misses, box 100 MUST be a winner!" Put it right.

1. After 99 misses the game must refund you — no support
2. Box 100 has the same small chance as every other box — ← Mova's choice · ✓ the right answer · score 1
3. Box 100 is always a winner — no support
4. Box 100 is always empty — no support

Why: It took the question to ask which statement is true. It chose option 2 with score 1, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 172, line 9: «Random draws often come in clumps by chance; two lucky boxes in a row don't change the next box's chance, and thinking they do is the hot-hand fallacy.», reached through the option's own match among the sentences about the question's things. What matched: the same doer «two lucky boxes» (+1). · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Exam question 1 · formal language · wrong ✗

Identify the principal misconception in the expectation that one hundred boxes, each offering a one-in-one-hundred chance, must yield one prize.

1. The boxes were opened at the wrong hour — ← Mova's choice · score 7
2. The prize was incorrectly described — no support
3. The number of boxes was insufficiently large — no support
4. A probability is mistaken for a guarantee — ✓ the right answer · no support

Why: It took the question to ask which statement is true. It chose option 1 with score 7, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 172, line 1: «In his game, Ollie opens loot boxes (paid surprise boxes with a random prize) for a legendary skin. The chance is 1 in 100 per box. He opens 100 boxes and gets…», reached through the same lesson line as the sentence the question matched. What matched: the same action «open» (+4); the same thing acted on «loot boxes» (+3). The right option, 4, found no support in what it remembers. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Exam question 2 · formal language · wrong ✗

Determine the term properly applied to continued expenditure motivated by the sum already expended.

1. Survivorship bias — ← Mova's choice · no support
2. The hot-hand fallacy — no support
3. Appeal to authority — no support
4. The sunk cost fallacy — ✓ the right answer · no support

Why: No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Exam question 3 · formal language · right ✓

Select the response consistent with the established facts concerning items obtained in many games.

1. They frequently cannot be sold for real money — ← Mova's choice · ✓ the right answer · score 6
2. They increase in value with rarity in all cases — no support
3. They are invariably exchangeable for currency — no support
4. Their value is fixed by law — no support

Why: It took the question to ask which statement is true. It chose option 1 with score 6, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 172, line 15: «In many games, items cannot be sold for real money, so they are worth nothing outside the game.», reached through the option's own match among the sentences about the question's things. What matched: the same action «sell» (+4); the same circumstance (+2). · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

Exam question 4 · formal language · right ✓

Which of the following most accurately characterises the inference drawn from a streamer's video displaying numerous rare cards?

1. It rests upon a selection of successes and omits the failures — ← Mova's choice · ✓ the right answer · no support
2. It is a representative sample of all openings — no support
3. It establishes the published drop chances — no support
4. It is a controlled experiment — no support

Why: No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics

This page in Markdown → https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/